Oscars 2008: Who Could/Should/Will Win

The Oscars are tonight! (8pm on ABC) I’m wicked excited for tonight and I’m already wearing my Oscar best.

I’ve already made some predictions in the Mount Holyoke News, which y’all shoud read if you have the time. But here is an extended edition of my Academy Award predictions.

So enjoy it friendo.
Best Picture

The Nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton,
No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood

Could Win: Does anyone else feel really bad for Atonement? It’s an excellent movie (I loved it), is nominated for seven Oscars and its best shot at winning anything is in the Best Original Score category. It’s a shame this lovely film lost the momentum it needed to carry it through the Award season. Speaking of momentum, Juno, with its recent domination of the box office ($125m and counting) and There Will Be Blood, with its passionate fan base and endless quoting of that milkshake line (at Mount Holyoke people are really starting to butcher it), are two films that certainly got enough momentum to upset front runner No Country.

Should Win: And what about Michael Clayton? Although I honestly loved every Best Picture nominee (I saw Juno three times; No Country twice), Michael Clayton is by far my favorite. I’m not quite sure what it has the other four film don’t but there is something about Michael Clayton that has made me support it 1000 times more than the film that will win…

Will Win: No Country For Old Men. I’m a realist. I know it’s going to happen. And I can live with it.

Best Actor

The Nominees: George Clooney, Michael Clayton; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah, Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Could Win: George Clooney, Johnny Depp, Tommy Lee Jones, and Viggo Mortensen. Unfortunately for them…

Should Win: They’re nominated the same year as Daniel Day-Lewis. Clooney has even gone as far to call himself the Hillary Clinton of the Oscars.

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. No doubt about it and I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Julie Christie, Away from Her; Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose, Laura Linney, The Savages; Ellen Page, Juno

Could Win: Blanchett gave a stronger and less-recycled performance in I’m Not There. Sadly, Linney just doesn’t stand a chance against the three heavy hitter in this category.

Should Win: Cotillard, Page, or Christie. Cotillard delivered a tour du force performance; Page delivered a star-making, career-defining and simply wonderful performance; and Christie delivered a subtle and beautiful performance. So who do you pick: the knock-out, the rising star, or the subtle beauty of a legend?

Will Win: Cotillard and Page’s inability to beat out Christie all the other times at every other award show, means that they most likely won’t win the Oscar and Julie Christie will.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…; Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War; Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild; Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Could Win: It would be great if Holbrook won; it would be a great moment. Hoffman would be a frontrunner had he not just won an Oscar… three years ago. Affleck had a breakout year (he’s no longer Ben’s younger brother) and we should be looking foward to what he does next. Wilkinson, like everything else about Michael Clayton, is superb and won’t win.

Should Win: Javier Bardem. Did you see No Country For Men?

Will Win: Javier Bardem. Duh.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There; Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Saiorse Ronan, Atonement; Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone; Tilda Swinton

Could Win: Everyone. It’s the most unpredictable category.

Should Win: Everyone. It’s also the strongest category.

Will Win: My heart says Amy Ryan or Ruby Dee, but my gut is starting to say Cate Blanchett (at least, as of last night it does). I honestly have no clue who is going to win this category.

Best Director

The Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood; Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men; Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Jason Reitman, Juno; Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Could Win: PTA, Gilroy, and Reitman.

Should Win: Schnabel. He is the only one who has a chance at upsetting the Coen Brothers (He did at the Golden Globes). I mean, did you see Diving Bell? But if Diving Bell wins in the cinematography category, then expect…

Will Win: the Coen Brothers to win.
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