2009 Golden Globes: Who Will Win

The 2009 Golden Globes are tonight! As usual, I will be live-blogging the event. But until tonight here is who I think will win.

Best Picture Drama

The Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Who Will Win: This year’s nominees are an inaccurate assessment of what film’s will be nominated for Oscars – the chances that The Reader and maybe Revolutionary Road will be nominated for Best Picture is unlikely. That being said the chances that these two pictures will also win tonight is unlikely. This category will go to either Benjamin Button or Slumdog Millionaire. I’d be satsified with either movie winning.

Best Actor – Drama

The Nominees:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Who Will Win: While Sean Penn is incredible as Harvey Milk, this award belongs to Mickey Rourke. With his performance in The Wrestler, Rourke has resurrected his career and delivers the performance of the ages.

Best Actress – Drama

The Nominees:

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Who Will Win: Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway tied for Best Actress the other night at the Broadcast Film Critics Award, so it would be safe to assume that they are the favorites to win. But critics love Kate Winslet. Considering that Winslet has received seven nominations and never won, that Streep has won multiple times, and that Hathaway has years of nominations ahead of her, this is Winslet’s best chance yet to receive a Golden Globe.

Best Picture – Musical or Comedy

The Nominees:

Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Who Will Win: I hated Burn After Reading; it was a comedy that wasn’t funny at all and if it wins, I might turn off the television. Happy-Go-Lucky and Vicky Cristina Barcelona are two most likely to win. Because Sally Hawkins will most likely win for Happy-Go-Lucky, Vicky Cristina Barcelona will win Best Picture.

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

The Nominees:

Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
James Franco, Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem is great in Vicky Cristina, but that movie belongs to Penelope Cruz. Judging by the list of nominees (and having not seen anything other than Vicky Cristina) I think Dustin Hoffman will win.

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

The Nominees:

Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey

Who Will Win: It is nice that Rebecca Hall was nominated for Vicky Cristina, since her castmates have been receiving the most attention. But Sally Hawkins is the performer to beat; she is a captivating wonder in Happy-Go-Lucky.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees:

Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Who Will Win: Since I posted my initial reactions to the nominees, I have seen Tropic Thunder. While my aversion to Tom Cruise still exists, he is ridiculously entertaining in Tropic Thunder. But this award is Heath Ledger’s. It’s the only sure thing and the best thing about this award season.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees:

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Who Will Win: Doubt is easily the best ensemble film this year, but Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona is explosive and unforgettable.

Best Director

The Nominees:

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road

Who Will Win: While either Benjamin Button or Slumdog Millionaire could win the Best Picture, the Best Director award belongs solely to Danny Boyle.

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