My 2009 Oscar Predictions

For me, the Academy Awards is the greatest event to happen every year. It is as though Christmas, New Year’s, birthdays and Thanksgiving combined and made one great holier than though holiday. I love the glitz, the stars, the history, the Red Carpet – seriously, words cannot explain how much I enjoy Ryan Seacrest and the Big Vowel. And of course, I love the movies nominated. Okay, enough of my rambling. Here are my predictions for the 2009 Academy Awards.

Best Picture

The Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Frost/Nixon; Milk; The Reader; Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Although it is nominated for the most awards (13), Benjamin Button is more likely to win for something like Best Make-up. Frost/Nixon is a better play than movie. I’m still pretty pissed that The Reader is nominated at all. Milk is easily one of best biopics to come out in a while. But my pick for “should win” is …The Wrestler. Oh wait, it’s not nominated. Well, in that case, Slumdog Millionaire should win.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire. It’s not even a competition any more.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Should Win: Although I enjoyed Sean Penn as Harvey Milk, my two favorite performances of the year were Richard Jenkins and Mickey Rourke. I’m also partial to Frank Langella.

Will Win: Mickey Rourke. Hopefully, the Oscar gods are on his side. The Wrestler is the best movie of the year and it should win every award it is nominated for.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Angelina Jolie, Changeling; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, The Reader

Should Win: Frozen River blew me away (I hope writer/director Courtney Hunt wins for Best Original Screenplay) and Melissa Leo delivered the best female performance of the year.

Will Win: Honestly, I don’t want Kate Winslet to win. Think about it. Winslet never winning an Oscar puts her in better company than if she won an actual Oscar. But I’ve accepted that Winslet will win on Sunday and I can live with that because no one deserves an Oscar more than Kate. (I know it’s strange logic but just work with me here). Also, don’t forget that there is a person named Meryl Streep in this category who is overdue for her third Oscar win.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Josh Brolin, Milk; Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannen, Revolutionary Road

Should Win: Josh Brolin as Dan White is eerie. But he is so eerie, that it is AMAZING.

Will Win: Heath Ledger. My friend made a really good point to me about Ledger winning – half of the voters will pick him for the sentimental aspect, the other half will choose him because he really deserves it. I’m just glad Best Supporting Actor is presented in the beginning so we can get what will be the saddest and most bittersweet moment of the evening over with.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Amy Adams, Doubt; Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Taraji P. Henson; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler.

Should Win: This is by far the year’s strongest acting category and each actress deserves to win. Other than the make-up, Henson is the most compelling performance of Benjamin Button. With 12 minutes of screen time, Viola Davis is the definition of a supporting character. Her co-star Amy Adams goes head-to-head with Streep and Hoffman and once again proves her amazing talent. In a movie about Vicky and Cristina, Penelope Cruz makes you forget that she is not the film’s star. And Marisa Tomei, as a stripper, had probably the most daring role (she was naked for most of The Wrestler) but her performance really makes The Wrestler an incredible film.

Will Win: Penelope Cruz; her scenes with Javier Bardem, when they are fighting in English and Spanish are so intense and passionate. It’s a great character and it is about time that Penelope Cruz wins an Oscar. But do not be surprised if one of the Doubt ladies takes home the prize instead.

Best Director

The Nominees: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire; Stephen Daldry, The Reader; David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon; Gus Van Sant, Milk

Should Win: Stephen Daldry is the first director to be nominated in this category for his first three features; he will win soon enough just not this year. Although I’m not crazy about Slumdog Millionaire as far as directing goes, it is the best directed film this year. Still Milk is a close second. So I’m torn between Van Sant and Boyle.

Will Win: Danny Boyle. Like I said before, Slumdog Millionaire cannot be stopped and will win big tonight.

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