There are 12 days until the Academy Awards and the question remains: Which Oscar frontrunner, Avatar or The Hurt Locker, will win Best Picture?
Lately The Hurt Locker has been leading the pack. But will it go the way of Slumdog Millionaire or Brokeback Mountain? This blog post on EW’s Oscar Watch breaks down the possible scenarios for The Hurt Locker on Oscar night.
@Cinefille 
My guess is that the outcome could be something in between. The hitch about BROKEBACK wasn’t that it didn’t get Best Picture, it’s that CRASH was such an inferior film. When one considers the other three nominees (GOODNIGHT AND GOOD LUCK, MUNICH, CAPOTE)…it’s a wonder the anti-Mountain faction couldn’t find something better to rally behind.
I think this new tiered voting system could lead to some wacky results. However, I also think that if there are wacky results…they will at least still be palatable results.
In other words, if HURT LOCKER fails to (more or less) run the table and pick up Best Picture…look for that award to go to a widely-appreciated film like INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, UP IN THE AIR, or even UP.