Oscars 2008: Who Could/Should/Will Win

The Oscars are tonight! (8pm on ABC) I’m wicked excited for tonight and I’m already wearing my Oscar best.

I’ve already made some predictions in the Mount Holyoke News, which y’all shoud read if you have the time. But here is an extended edition of my Academy Award predictions.

So enjoy it friendo.
Best Picture

The Nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton,
No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood

Could Win: Does anyone else feel really bad for Atonement? It’s an excellent movie (I loved it), is nominated for seven Oscars and its best shot at winning anything is in the Best Original Score category. It’s a shame this lovely film lost the momentum it needed to carry it through the Award season. Speaking of momentum, Juno, with its recent domination of the box office ($125m and counting) and There Will Be Blood, with its passionate fan base and endless quoting of that milkshake line (at Mount Holyoke people are really starting to butcher it), are two films that certainly got enough momentum to upset front runner No Country.

Should Win: And what about Michael Clayton? Although I honestly loved every Best Picture nominee (I saw Juno three times; No Country twice), Michael Clayton is by far my favorite. I’m not quite sure what it has the other four film don’t but there is something about Michael Clayton that has made me support it 1000 times more than the film that will win…

Will Win: No Country For Old Men. I’m a realist. I know it’s going to happen. And I can live with it.

Best Actor

The Nominees: George Clooney, Michael Clayton; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah, Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Could Win: George Clooney, Johnny Depp, Tommy Lee Jones, and Viggo Mortensen. Unfortunately for them…

Should Win: They’re nominated the same year as Daniel Day-Lewis. Clooney has even gone as far to call himself the Hillary Clinton of the Oscars.

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. No doubt about it and I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Julie Christie, Away from Her; Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose, Laura Linney, The Savages; Ellen Page, Juno

Could Win: Blanchett gave a stronger and less-recycled performance in I’m Not There. Sadly, Linney just doesn’t stand a chance against the three heavy hitter in this category.

Should Win: Cotillard, Page, or Christie. Cotillard delivered a tour du force performance; Page delivered a star-making, career-defining and simply wonderful performance; and Christie delivered a subtle and beautiful performance. So who do you pick: the knock-out, the rising star, or the subtle beauty of a legend?

Will Win: Cotillard and Page’s inability to beat out Christie all the other times at every other award show, means that they most likely won’t win the Oscar and Julie Christie will.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…; Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War; Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild; Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Could Win: It would be great if Holbrook won; it would be a great moment. Hoffman would be a frontrunner had he not just won an Oscar… three years ago. Affleck had a breakout year (he’s no longer Ben’s younger brother) and we should be looking foward to what he does next. Wilkinson, like everything else about Michael Clayton, is superb and won’t win.

Should Win: Javier Bardem. Did you see No Country For Men?

Will Win: Javier Bardem. Duh.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There; Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Saiorse Ronan, Atonement; Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone; Tilda Swinton

Could Win: Everyone. It’s the most unpredictable category.

Should Win: Everyone. It’s also the strongest category.

Will Win: My heart says Amy Ryan or Ruby Dee, but my gut is starting to say Cate Blanchett (at least, as of last night it does). I honestly have no clue who is going to win this category.

Best Director

The Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood; Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men; Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Jason Reitman, Juno; Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Could Win: PTA, Gilroy, and Reitman.

Should Win: Schnabel. He is the only one who has a chance at upsetting the Coen Brothers (He did at the Golden Globes). I mean, did you see Diving Bell? But if Diving Bell wins in the cinematography category, then expect…

Will Win: the Coen Brothers to win.

Golden Globes 2007: Who Will Win

Tonight at 8pm on NBC are the 64th Annual Golden Globe Awards. Warren Beatty will receive to Cecil B. DeMille Award and countless others will honored for their contributions to films and television in 2006.

Tim Allen, Jessica Biel, Steve Carell, Sean Combs, Jamie Foxx, Jennifer Garner, Dustin Hoffman, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Djimon Hounsou, Joaquin Phoenix, Charlie Sheen, Sharon Stone, Steven Spielberg, Naomi Watts, and Renee Zellweger are set to be presenters.

Here are this year’s nominees and who I believe should win and who will win.

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Little Children
The Queen

Should Win: I have yet to see Bobby, so I can’t really judge it but I think it’s safe to say it won’t win. The Queen and Little Children are great and wonderfully intriguing films but Babel and The Departed are the top competitors in this category. I was disappointed by Babel and blown away by The Departed. The Departed should win.
Will Win:<The Departed. But don’t be shocked if Babel pulls out a win.

Best Actress – Drama
Penelope Cruz – Volver
Judi Dench – Notes on a Scandal
Maggie Gyllenhaal – Sherrybaby
Helen Mirren – The Queen
Kate Winslet – Little Children

Who Should Win: I have only seen The Queen and Little Children (I’m planning to see Notes on a Scandal this week). Despite this small sampling, I’m convinced that Helen Mirren’s performance as The Queen deserves every accolade she has received so far.
Who Will Win: Helen Mirren

Best Actor – Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Departed
Peter O’Toole – Venus
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland

Who Should Win: I have been watching Forest Whitaker guest star on E.R. this year as a crazy man who stalks his doctor. But when I watched The Last King of Scotland last night, to see him in a completely different role as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin is absolutely terrifying.
Who Will Win: Forest Whitaker. He has no competition.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Thank You For Smoking

Should Win: There are three strong competitors in this category: Borat, Dreamgirls, and Little Miss Sunshine. Little Miss Sunshine deserves the win the most, but it doesn’t stand a chancce against the movies with more hype.
Will Win: Dreamgirls. How can it not?

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Annette Bening – Running With Scissors
Toni Collette – Little Miss Sunshine
Beyonce Knowles – Dreamgirls
Meryl Steep – The Devil Wears Prada
Renee Zellweger- Miss Potter

Should Win: Once again I have only seen three performances. Nevertheless, choosing Meryl Streep above the others is easy. Like really easy.
>Will Win: Meryl Streep. The other actresses in this category are only nominated because five slots had to be filled. Meryl Streep is the only legit nom.

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Johnny Depp – Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
Aaron Eckhart – Thank You for Smoking
Chiwetel Ejiofor – Kinky Boots
Will Ferrell – Stranger Than Fiction

Who Should Win: Johnny Depp has a great shot (he was passed over for the first Pirates movie) but I think his best opportunity to win in this category will be next year, when the Pirates trilogy is complete. In a perfect world, Chiwetel Ejifor will win (see Kinky Boots now if you haven’t) but he won’t because of…
Who Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen and Borat. I don’t feel as though I need to explain this one at all.

Best Animated Feature
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Should Win: Well, I only saw Happy Feet and I must have missed something because everyone else seemed to love it. I really believe another movie deserves to win.
Will Win: But who am I kidding? Happy Feet has been receiving the most awards for animated feature so far this award season.

Best Foreign Language Film
Apocalypto (USA)
Letters From Iwo Jima (USA/JAPAN)
The Lives of Others (GERMANY)
Pan’s Labyrinth (MEXICO)
Volver (SPAIN)

Should Win: I haven’t seen any but by the looks of it…
Will Win: Pan’s Labyrinth or Volver will win. Then again, everyone seems to in love with Letters from Iwo Jima right now. I honestly have no idea.

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza – Babel
Cate Blanchett – Notes On A Scandal
Emily Blunt – The Devil Wears Prada
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel

Who Should Win: Even though I have not seen Notes on a Scandal yet and Rinko Kikuchi has already received many awards for Babel and Adriana Barraza performance is equally good, if not better and Emily Blunt was a fabulous delight in The Devil Wears Prada…
Who Will Win: It’s going to take a lot to beat out Jennifer Hudson. But she still deserves every award, just to burst Beyonce’s bubble a little but further.

Best Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck – Hollywoodland
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson – The Departed
Brad Pitt – Babel
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed

Who Should Win: I’ve seen all the performances and all are deserving of a nom, but Eddie Murphy and Jack Nicholson are the best two. Murphy should win because in Dreamgirls he delivers his best work is years.
Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy. But, then again, everyone loves Jack so just be ready for him to accept the prize.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood – Flags of Our Fathers
Clint Eastwood – Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears – The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Babel
Martin Scorsese – The Departed

Who Should Win: It’s between Inarritu and Scorcese.
Who Will Win: Martin Scorcese. Because I said so.

Best Screenplay
Guillermo Arriga – Babel
Todd Field & Tom Perrotta – Little Children
Patrick Marber – Notes on a Scandal
William Monahan – The Departed
Peter Morgan – The Queen

Who Should Win: Peter Morgan for The Queen. It’s a great script.
Who Will Win: Peter Morgan but William Monahan has been winning a lot for The Departed. He could win too.

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There are my predictions for the Golden Globes. Remember, they begin at 8pm est on NBC!

Enjoy the show and I’ll be back either tonight or tomorrow with a full recap.

2007 Golden Globes: The Nominees Could Be…

Golden Globe nominations will be announced tomorrow. Here are what I think the most plausible nominees could be. We’ll see how my predictions play out tomorrow at 5 AM pst.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Babel
The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
The Queen
United 93

Letters From Iwo Jima, could be nominated instead of Flags but I chose Flags because the hype about Letters From Iwo Jima only began to increase a week ago.

Blood Diamond, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal and Half-Nelson are other possibilities in this category.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Borat
Cars
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine

Happy Feet is the other animated feature that could be nominated in this category.

Thank You For Smoking is also another possibility.

Best Director

Pedro Almodovar – Volver
Clint Eastwood – Letters from Iwo Jima/Flags of Our Fathers
Stephen Freers – The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu – Babel
Martin Scorcese – The Departed

Bill Condon (Dreamgirls) and Paul Greengrass (United 93) both have a fairly good shot at getting nominated.

Best Actor – Drama

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Departed
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole – Venus
Will Smith – Persuit of Happyness
Forrest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland

I can’t think of any other actor who could be nominated in this category.

Best Actress – Drama

Penelope Cruz- Volver

Judi Dench – Notes on a Scandal

Maggie Gyllenhaal – Sherrybaby
Helen Mirren – The Queen
Kate Winslet – Little Children

I included Maggie Gyllenhaal partially because I couldn’t think of any other actress and because one indie performance usually gets thrown into the pot at the Golden Globes.

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

Sascha Baron Cohen – Borat

Aaron Eckhart – Thank You For Smoking
Jamie Foxx – Dreamgirls

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Toni C0llette – Little Miss Sunshine
Beyone Knowles – Dreamgirls
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada

In reality, either Breslin or Collette will be nominated for Best Supporting Actress while the other represents Little Miss Sunshine in this category.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine

Djimon Honsou – Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson – The Departed
Michael Sheen – The Queen

I would love for Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine) to be nominated. But it most likely won’t happen, but a girl can hope.

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barraza – Babel

Cate Blanchett – Notes on a Scandal
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls
Catherine O’Hara – For Your Consideration
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel

Honestly, how many of us want Jennifer Hudson to be nominated and win. THEN stick it to Simon Cowell. Of course, she may be too classy for that, but that’s what I would LOVE to see.

Shareeka Epps in Half Nelson might also be nominated in this category.

Best Screenplay

The Departed

Dreamgirls

Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Children

Notes From a Scandal

Best Original Screenplay

Babel

Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Stranger Than Fiction
Volver

Best Foreign Language Film
Army of Shadows

The Death of Mr. Lazarescu

The Lives of Others
Pan’s Labyrinth
Volver

My Oscar Predictions

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
George Clooney; Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

Who Should Win: Best Supporting Actor is typically the first award rewarded and it sets the tone for the evening. If Matt Dillon wins, expect Crash to win Best Picture. If Jake Gyllenhaal wins, then it will be Brokeback Mountain‘s night. William Hurt will not win becuase 10 minutes of screen time usually does not generate Oscars plus he has already won. Paul Giamatti is my favorite. He was snubbed the last two years and he never fails to amaze.
Who Will Win: Although his surprise win at the SAG Awards makes Giamatti a frontrunner in this category (he is the actor’s actor after all), I don’t expect him to win. Instead, George Clooney will because voters will want to award him for his unbelieveably successful year. And if he does win, his speech if guaranteed to be hilarious.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Who Should Win: This is a tough race to judge. Each actress could win this category if their competiton was weaker. I loved them all. McDormand is the most endeering character in North Country, Adams is a delight, Williams is heartbreaking and she made you forget she was ever on Dawson’s Creek, Weisz is a force. But it is indie-queen Catherine Keener who deserves this award. She delivered for stellar performances this year (for The Interpreter, The Ballad of Jack and Rose, The 40-Year Old Virgin and Capote). In fact, she is long overdue for an Oscar.
Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz. I loved her in this role, I loved this movie (I think Ralph Fiennes was overlooked, but that’s a different issue)

Best Actor
Nominees:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Stratharin, Good Night and Good Luck

Who Should Win: It is the same saga as it is with the Best Supporting ACtress Category. Each of these performances could have gathered an Pscar if the competeion was weaker. Unfortunately for Howard, Ledger, Phoenix, and Strathairn, Philip Seymour Hoffman is Truman Capote. Simple enough.
Who Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. No doubt about it.

Best Actress:
Nominees:
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Who Should Win: I’m not jumping on the bandwagon with this one. Felicity Huffman should win. Although Witherspoon was charming and brought the sass of June Carter Cash into her performance, Huffman took a challenge. She played a man in a low-budget indie film. But that is where the problem is. Most Academy voters didn’t see Transamerica.
Who Will Win: Reese Witherspoon. Yeah, she does derserve it and I’ll be glad if she wins, but I want Felicity Huffman to win so much more.

Best Director:
Nominees:
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Speilberg, Munich

Who Should Win: George Clooney. (Gasp I didn’t say Ang Lee!) Through a black and white movie, by bringing the integrity of journalism to the big screen, with the astounding performance by David Strathairn as Edward R. Murrow, and by creating the true feeling of fear during McCarthyism, Clooney crafted a film of sheer brilliance.
Who Will Win: Ang Lee. Brokeback Mountain was visually pleasing and Lee took the difficult subject matter to a level that few directors could have accomplished.

Best Picture:
Nominees:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Who Should Win: Another tough category. Crash speaks to the LA voting base of the Academy. Good Night and Good Luck resonates with liberals. And Brokeback Mountain is a fine movie. Each should win.
Who Will Win: Brokeback Mountain. It is a landmark film in the history of cinema. It will win unless Crash decides to crash its hat trick.

The Oscar Nominees Could Be, Should Be, Will Be…

Tomorrow the Oscar nominations will be announced. So here it is: My predictions of who will be nominated and if they aren’t, who should be.

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Constant Gardener

Best Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman — Capote
Terrence Howard — Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger — Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix — Walk the Line
David Strathairn — Good Night, and Good Luck

Best Actress
Felicity Huffman — Transamerica
Reese Witherspoon — Walk the Line
Charlize Theron — North Country
Judi Dench — Mrs. Henderson Presents
Joan Allen — The Upside of Anger

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti — Cinderella Man
George Clooney — Syriana
Matt Dillon — Crash
Don Cheadle — Crash
Jake Gyllenhaal — Brokeback Mountain

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams — Junebug
Michelle Williams — Brokeback Mountain
Rachel Weisz — The Constant Gardener
Catherine Keener — Capote
Scarlett Johansson — Match Point

Best Director
Ang Lee — Brokeback Mountain
Woody Allen — Match Point
Paul Haggis — Crash
George Clooney — Good Night, and Good Luck
Fernando Meirelles — The Constant Gardener